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Is India prepared to tackle with this pandemic better now? We would know it only when the lockdown rules come down

LiveMint analyzes scenarios around this pandemic being tested in India and has come to understand that there isn’t any link between testing rates and fatality rates. Besides, the same is believed by other countries too.

Further, the analysis even states that countries that have done enough testing are now making lockdown rules less strict because they feel more aware of tackling with the pace at which this virus spreads.

In India, there are not many COVID tests happening but it is not a bad thing because the fatality rates haven’t increased so far. Whereas, it is not the same with other countries. Even though they had many tests, the fatality rates did increase for them.

On 25th March, India conducted 539 tests per million people and stood 52nd among other countries in terms of the number of tests the country did. Now, India is conducting 758 tests per million and it ranks 24th in the country as of 3rd May.

According to the Indian Council Of Medical Research, based on the tests conducted, India has found fewer positive cases and hasn’t had to experience stress with an increase in fatality rate so far.

Scenario 1

Even after testing fewer people and finding fewer cases, India has had less fatalities so far.

The ICMR is skeptical about the testing strategy as they believe more factors such as testing capacity, health care system, infection stage, and demographic factors of countries come into the picture.

In this scenario, India is much better as it has a lesser fatality rate when compared to countries such as Indonesia and Mexico, these countries have low testing rates, high positive cases and higher fatalities.

Scenario 2

The States in India that have done enough tests have not experienced an increase in fatality rates.

Scenario 3

Even though tests were done at an early stage, cases still increased in Delhi. However, it was quite the opposite in the case of Punjab.

Jacob John, professor of epidemiology and community medicine at the Christian Medical College (CMC) Vellore said “We made a big mistake in the early stages of not testing enough," “There is no doubt that we are in the community transmission stage."

However, the ICMR denied that we are in a community transmission stage. The fact that COVID-19 cases are unpredictable, the lockdown in India has been extending.

Scenario 4

The countries that tested more in early stages of the pandemic have reduced their lockdown rules from last week.

By Neha Makhija