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Whole nation is raising the question on how lockdown prevented more deaths in India. India would have to witness the positive cases of 14-29 lakhs if there was no lockdown. And the death rate would be 37,000-78,000 due to uncontrollable infection.

The analysis was released of the first two lockdown phases. A member from Nitya Aayogya said, the restrictions of lockdown prevented the virus infection.

He also said, “On April 3, we had 22.6% new cases per day, the behaviour of the virus was exponential. But after April 4, there was a clear slowing down and it has now settled at 5.5%.”

Apart from preventing the virus with lockdown, the government also focused on arranging the health facilities. The health infrastructure and medical workers are much available which wouldn't be possible without lockdown. Statistics ministry and ISI found in their records that 20 lakhs cases and 54,000 deaths.

According to the BCG analysis, it is studied that 36-70 lakh cases and 1.2-2.1 lakh deaths. While PHFI estimated that nearly 78,000 deaths were averted.

On the other hand, two independent economists analyze 23 lakh cases and 68,000 deaths. The retired scientists and epidemiologist estimate says 15.9 lakh cases and 51,000 deaths.

Dr. Paul from Nitya Aayogya said “While the gains of the lockdown have been that a large number of deaths and cases have been averted, it also meant that much fewer people spread the infection.”

By Ramya C