Harsh Vardhan Inaugurates International meet on Weather, Climate Modelling & Data (EMMDA)Top Stories

February 25, 2020 16:09
Harsh Vardhan Inaugurates International meet on Weather, Climate Modelling & Data (EMMDA)

(Image source from: saurenergy.com)

Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) has been developed by the leading weather forcasting centers of the world which also includes India in order to quantify the forecast uncertainty as there exists some amount of uncertainty which is associated with predicting numerical weather inspite of achieving remarkable success in improving the forecast skill which is done by employing state of art numerical prediction systems and by adopting the latest data assimilation techniques.

The Ensemble Prediction System consists of a number of similar models which are called the ensemble members would made to run from the initial conditions that would be slightly different.

The flow- dependent forecast uncertainty would be provided in terms of probability and this would be done with the availability of high computational resources which would be required by the Ensemble Prediction System.

The forecasts made from the high resolution global and regional Ensemble Prediction System is said to provide more accurate forecasts in terms of probability regarding the extreme weather events which would in turn help the planners and the administrators to take timely actions.

Two global Ensemble Prediction Systems have been recently operationally implemented by India and it is said to have the highest resolution in the world and would also contain a regional EPS of 4 kilo meters as the horizontal resolution which is said to cover the Indian region.

The skill of the EPS can be improved with a collaborative research and a development work that is well coordinated between the national and the international centers.

An international conference on Ensemble Methods in Modelling and Data Assimilation (EMMDA) has been organized for three days by the National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCRMRWF), Ministry of Earth Science (MoES) in order to discuss and for the deliberations on the current status and also about the future prospects and the optimum use of Ensemble Prediction System. This three- day conference is said to be organized from the 24th of February at NCMRWF, Noida.

The major themes that would be included in the conference are:

1. Ensemble methods in Global Weather Prediction

2. Ensemble methods in Data Assimilation

3. Ensemble methods in monthly and Seasonal Forecasting

4. Convention Permitting Ensemble Prediction Systems

5. Verification of Ensemble weather forecasts

6. Applications of Ensemble weather forecasts

The leading international experts would be presenting the papers along with the distinguished scientists from India from different organizations on the latest developments that have been made in the field of ensemble data assimilation and modelling.

This conference that has been organized by the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) would be witnessing about twenty young scientists and the researchers who would be presenting their research outcomes and the conference would also be attended by around hundred participants including the forecasters, stakeholders from several different sectors and many young research scholars.

By Shrithika Kushangi

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