(Image source from: Reuters)
The United Nations reports that India's population is projected to reach its highest point around the early 2060s, totaling approximately 1.7 billion people. Thereafter, it is expected to decrease by 12%, but India will remain the world's most populous country throughout the century. Globally, the world's population is anticipated to continue growing over the next 50-60 years, reaching a peak of roughly 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After this peak, the global population is projected to start declining gradually, falling to 10.2 billion by the end of the century. India, which surpassed China as the world's most populous nation in the previous year, will likely maintain this position through 2100. According to the report, India's population in 2024 is projected to be 1.45 billion, and it is expected to reach its maximum of 1.69 billion in 2054.
According to population projections, India's population, currently estimated at 1.45 billion, is expected to continue growing, reaching a peak of around 1.69 billion in the 2060s. However, by the end of the century in 2100, the country is projected to decline to 1.5 billion. Despite this decrease, India will remain the world's most populous nation, far exceeding China's projected population of 633 million by 2100. The United Nations' Senior Population Affairs Officer, Clare Menozzi, stated in a press conference that while India's population growth is set to slow down, it will still maintain its status as the largest country in the world throughout the 21st century.
According to projections, China, currently the world's second-most populous nation, is expected to undergo the most substantial absolute population decline between 2024 and 2054, losing around 204 million people. This is followed by Japan (21 million) and Russia (10 million). While long-term population forecasts for China remain uncertain, its vast size and persistently low fertility rates suggest it will likely experience the largest population drop of any country by the end of the century, declining by 786 people. By 2100, China's population is projected to have decreased by more than half, returning to a size comparable to the late 1950s, with a 50% probability. Responding to inquiries about China's remarkably low population projections, John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA, attributed this to the country's current fertility rate, which is approximately one child per woman over a lifetime. This is significantly lower than the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman required to maintain a stable population.
The fertility rate plummeting below 2, or particularly 1.8 or 1.5, indicates dangerously low fertility levels, leading to a substantial long-term population decline. This trend applies not only to China but also to various other nations examined in the analysis, as Wilmoth has observed.
